Forecasting demand for quantum communications services in the oil and gas industry taking into account the value proposition

Abstract

The research is dedicated to the study of economic aspects of the implementation of quantum communications technologies. The purpose of the study is to predict the conditions under which the implementation of this innovation will be of economic interest to end users using the example of the oil and gas industry. The hypothesis was that the implementation of quantum communications as an information security tool is of interest to oil and gas companies that own critical information infrastructure in order to reduce the risks of economic losses from the consequences of cybercrimes. To prove this hypothesis, the author conducted a study of the place and role of quantum communications in the information security system of an energy enterprise, estimated the amount of costs for transforming the infrastructure using a quantum component, and gave an economic assessment of the risks associated with the lack of a quantum level of network security. As a result of a comparative analysis of potential costs and risks, the author comes to the conclusion that the lack of mass demand for quantum communications piloting services may be due to insufficient economic effects at the current stage of technological progress, but the success of a potential adversary in the development of quantum computers will increase the demand for quantum communications in the long-term horizon of 2030-2038. The findings may be of interest to specialists working in the field of development and commercialization of the new branch of quantum communications in the Russian Federation.