Transformation of demographic research: the role of big data and population digital twins

Abstract

The paper analyses more than 2,800 scientific publications for the period 2015-2025 to identify key aspects of the modern demographic research transformation. These aspects include changing data types for analysis (traditional data and digital traces), the challenges in their use, and the emergence of a new "Digital Demography" research field. The paper also discusses the expanded opportunities with big data and digital twins in demographic research. Besides, we propose a conceptual model of a digital twin of the Russian population. The model considers the planned state support measures aimed at increasing the Russian population. Namely, it can model the consequences of various reproductive strategies in the case of those measures. The study's results can be used to determine the necessary measures of state support for the institution of the family, considering the capabilities of modern information technologies in scenario modeling of demographic processes, as well as to enhance the quality of expertise in decision support for public administration to solve social and economic problems.