A concept of an agent-based model of demographic processes on real data

Abstract

This article examines an agent-based model of demographic processes as a tool for digital demography, designed to utilize real-world data and support evidence-based scenario analysis. It demonstrates that such a model complements traditional demographic calculations; rather than replacing official statistics, it links aggregate indicators to the life trajectories of representative individuals, households, employers, and geographic areas. Particular attention is paid to the model's role within a digital demographic observatory, the process of transforming heterogeneous data into a synthetic population, the description of key life-course events, the capabilities for scenario analysis, and validation requirements. The article emphasizes that agent-based modeling in demography must function as both a computational and a social-scientific tool, requiring transparent and realistic assumptions regarding human behavior, proper accounting for data limitations, and an ethically sound interpretation of results.