Information efficiency in online betting market: the case from Russian Premier League football matches

Abstract

This research embarks on an uncharted exploration into the efficiency of the Russian football online betting market, offering a fresh perspective on a relatively unexplored area. This study analyzes the average market odds and odds from four specific local Russian bookmakers: 1xstavka, Fonbet, Betcity, and Marathon, spanning the seasons from 2019/2020 to 2022/2023. The findings reveal a discernible decline in average bookmakers' margins over the seasons, with significant fluctuations and potential correlations with the absence of an audience. The efficiency tests of the online betting markets for the average market price and the four Russian local bookmakers yield notable insights. The results indicate a consistent trend of negative returns, with certain seasons and bookmakers showing less negative or even positive returns. The research uncovers fluctuating efficiency in different outcomes over the seasons, highlighting potential market inefficiencies, particularly in the assessment of away team victories during specific periods. Despite its comprehensive analysis, the study acknowledges limitations, including its focus on four Russian bookmakers and the exclusion of various external factors, underscoring the need for further research in this domain.