System of intellectual assessment of social and economic development potentials of Russian-Belarusian border area regions

Abstract

Socio-economic development of the region is a complex, complex process that depends on a significant number of factors. Despite the observed rupture of many global value chains, Russia and the Republic of Belarus still have quite active industrial and economic relations, which have a direct impact on the border areas. In order to improve the performance of strategic plans of socio-economic development of the two countries, it is necessary to assess the interaction between the regions of the Russian-Belarusian borderland. 

To solve this problem, the article proposes an intellectual system of complex analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of changes in the indicators of socio-economic development of the Russian-Belarusian borderland, which allows to identify potential regions of synergetic growth and mutual influence of individual factors of territorial development on each other. The system is based on the procedure of neural network forecasting of changes in the values of key factors of regional development, taking into account the peculiarities of individual groups of factors of socio-economic development of regions in terms of the characteristics of the resources required for their implementation and the type of information and analytical representation in open sources of information. The possibility of forecast values processing with the help of a set of fuzzy logic rules to improve the accuracy of the forecast is realized. The peculiarity of the developed system is the possibility of forecasting a set of indicators based on seasonal models, identification of their critical values, consideration of qualitative parameters and their mutual influence.